Graphic shows the new tornado alley. Photo credit by WFMY.
It’s already March and the SAU campus has experienced several rounds of tornado watches and severe weather. Tornados and severe thunderstorms impact students and community members for many months out of the year, but especially through the months of April, May, June, and July.
Now a new National Weather Service designation reflects the reality that campus could experience even more averse weather. According to KWQC, a local news station in Davenport, says when you break down the data to the 30-year average (1994 to 2024), the updated figures show an 80%-90% probability of a tornado within 25 miles for eastern Iowa and western Illinois.
Tornado Alley Shifting East?
Weather experts say for years, severe weather has impacted Oklahoma, Kansas, and Nebraska, but that seems to be changing. Tornado alley is a broad area of relatively high impacted areas with tornado occurrence in the central United States.
Meteorologists say that tornado alley is shifting more eastwards, affecting states like Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana.
Severe weather is always prominent in the Midwest, however the past two years, these areas have seen more warnings, and even more tornados. According to the NWS, nearly 80% of tornados in Illinois occur between the months of April 1st, and June 30th. In 2023, over 136 tornados touched down, and those numbers are only expected to rise.
As for Iowa, these numbers are expected to rise as well. Many of Iowa’s tornados occurred within the months of April and May. The worst tornado that touched down was ranked an EF 4, in Greenfield Iowa, and killed four individuals on May 21st, 2024.
Tornadoes are more likely to happen between the hours of 4 p.m. to 9 p.m. but can happen at any time of the day. Students, faculty, and staff at St. Ambrose University, which is right on the Illinois/Iowa border, need to understand weather alerts.
Warnings and Alerts
Warnings and alerts being accurate and effective are important. In the United States, the National Weather Service issues warnings and watches, which is a system that operates under the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
Severe Thunderstorm Watch occurs when there are risks of severe weather. This does not mean that severe weather will happen, only a possibility.
A Severe Thunderstorm Warning is issued when severe thunderstorms occur or are imminent in the warning area.
A Tornado Watch is issued when severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are possible in and near the watch area. It does not mean that they will occur. It only means they are possible.
A Tornado Warning is issued when a tornado is imminent. When a tornado warning is issued, seek safe shelter immediately.
Campus Weather Alerts: Use the LiveSafe app
At St. Ambrose University, students receive alerts and emails when severe weather in coming our way. Emails are sent out a few days in advance preparing students. These emails consist of what needs to occur in order for the siren to sound.
In Davenport, sirens will go off, if winds reach more than 70 mph, or with golf-ball size hail or larger. Students can also be alerted through the LiveSafe app.
Meteorologist Standpoint
As technology increases over the years, as well as AI, meteorologists are able to predict storms more accurately. WQAD Chief Meteorologist, James Zahara, says he expects there to be a significant increase in technology within the next incoming decades.
“We have seen a significant increase in technology over the 10 years compared to the previous 30 before that. It’s an exponential curve when it comes to technology in weather. I expect that growth to continue with the addition of AI and a new atmospheric data.”
What To Do On Campus
In the event that a tornado warning takes place, on campus, Public Safety recommends that all students remain indoors away from windows and exterior walls. If possible, it’s best to get to the basement of a building, or the lowest level. If you have access to a bathtub, hallway, or a closet, taking shelter in these areas will protect you from any injuries or flying debris.
